This week’s theatrical-to-streaming picture provides perhaps the clearest example yet of why studios increasingly treat streaming as a second release window rather than the end of a movie’s commercial life.
Supergirl, which lost an estimated $100 million–$120 million during its theatrical run, has become the No. 1 movie on HBO Max. Guy Ritchie’s In the Grey has performed a similar turnaround on Starz. Meanwhile, commercially successful movies including Scary Movie, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary show the opposite strategy: using streaming to extend films that already proved themselves at the box office.
Platforms and Sources Reviewed
HBO Max, Starz, Paramount+, Peacock, Prime Video/MGM+ and Disney+ were reviewed alongside current reporting and official platform information from Variety, NBCUniversal, Paramount+, Disney+, Prime Video and current U.S. availability data.
Main Highlight 1: Supergirl — From Theatrical Disappointment to HBO Max No. 1
Supergirl began streaming on HBO Max on September 10, after opening theatrically June 26.
And its streaming story is already dramatically different from its theatrical one.
The movie is currently No. 1 on HBO Max’s U.S. movie chart, according to the latest available chart data.
That is significant because Supergirl had one of the year’s more disappointing theatrical performances.
The film opened to $37.1 million domestically and $62.6 million globally, eventually finishing with approximately $126 million worldwide. Variety estimates the film lost Warner Bros. between $100 million and $120 million theatrically.
Why it matters
This is almost a perfect experiment in the difference between theatrical and streaming demand.
A movie ticket asks audiences:
“Is this film worth leaving home and paying specifically to see?”
A streaming subscription asks something very different:
“You already have HBO Max. Do you want to press play?”
The second question has dramatically less friction.
That appears to be benefiting Supergirl.
How the box office may be affecting OTT viewership
The theatrical disappointment may actually be increasing curiosity.
Millions of potential viewers heard about Supergirl during its theatrical campaign but chose not to buy a ticket. That awareness did not disappear when the film left cinemas.
Once HBO Max removed the incremental cost of seeing it, a portion of that audience appears to have finally sampled the movie.
OTT takeaway: Streaming charts can reveal latent audience demand that theatrical box-office numbers cannot.
Main Highlight 2: In the Grey — Another Box-Office Miss Turns Into a Streaming Hit
An even more striking turnaround is happening on Starz.
In the Grey, starring Henry Cavill, Jake Gyllenhaal and Eiza González, began its Starz subscription window on September 12 after opening theatrically May 15. Current U.S. availability confirms the film is now included through Starz and its channel partners.
It has already reached No. 1 on both Starz’s U.S. movie chart and overall chart in the latest available rankings.
Its theatrical story was considerably less impressive.
The action thriller opened with only about $2.9 million domestically, ultimately earning roughly $5.7 million in the U.S. and Canada and $27.8 million worldwide, against a reported $70 million production budget.
Why it matters
In the Grey has something streaming algorithms understand very well: recognizable faces.
Cavill, Gyllenhaal and González can be powerful thumbnail-level discovery tools even when the underlying movie failed to generate theatrical urgency.
And director Guy Ritchie’s name itself has become a recognizable streaming brand following projects including The Gentlemen.
How the box office may affect OTT viewership
A $27.8 million worldwide theatrical gross suggests relatively few people actually saw the film.
That creates a large pool of viewers for whom In the Grey effectively feels like a new movie, even though it opened four months ago.
OTT takeaway: A theatrical flop can paradoxically have a larger untapped audience when it reaches streaming.
Main Highlight 3: Scary Movie — Streaming Extends a Genuine Theatrical Hit
Paramount+ presents the opposite story.
Scary Movie began streaming on Paramount+ on September 3, 91 days after its June 5 theatrical opening. Subscribers can choose between the theatrical release and an extended cut.
The movie had already succeeded before reaching streaming.
It opened to approximately $54 million and finished with more than $230 million worldwide, making it the second-highest-grossing installment in the franchise and pushing cumulative Scary Movie box office beyond $1 billion.
Why it matters
Paramount is now monetizing the same audience awareness twice.
The theatrical campaign reintroduced Cindy, Brenda, Shorty and Ray to moviegoers. Paramount+ can capitalize on that awareness without needing to relaunch the franchise from scratch.
Better still, the streamer has the earlier Scary Movie films available alongside the new release.
How the box office may affect OTT viewership
Strong theatrical performance creates an enormous halo.
Many people who heard about the reboot but did not see it in theaters now encounter a familiar title when they open Paramount+.
And its September arrival gives the horror comedy a second advantage: Halloween viewing season is approaching.
OTT takeaway: Streaming can turn theatrical marketing into long-tail subscriber engagement.
Two Blockbusters Show the Other Side of the Strategy
Two of 2026’s biggest theatrical successes are also now available at home.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie — Peacock
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie has been streaming exclusively on Peacock since July 30.
This is not a streaming rescue story.
NBCUniversal announced in June that the movie had become 2026’s first $1 billion global theatrical release, with $429.6 million from North America and $577.5 million internationally at that point.
For Peacock, that theatrical success creates enormous streaming value: parents already know the movie, children recognize the characters, and family films can generate unusually high repeat viewing.
OTT takeaway: A billion-dollar theatrical movie can become a powerful streaming-retention asset long after audiences have already paid to see it once.
Project Hail Mary — Prime Video
Project Hail Mary is also now included with Prime Video in the United States. Prime Video’s official listing currently carries the Ryan Gosling sci-fi film in its catalog.
The movie took an unusually layered route home after its March 20 theatrical debut: PVOD first, then MGM+ on June 18, followed by Prime Video.
That rollout followed an exceptional theatrical run. Current reporting puts its final worldwide performance at more than $680 million, making it one of 2026’s biggest films.
OTT takeaway: Amazon MGM used theaters, digital sales, MGM+ and finally Prime Video to extract value from multiple windows rather than rushing one of its biggest movies directly onto its largest streaming platform.
Still Worth Watching: The Mandalorian and Grogu on Disney+
The Mandalorian and Grogu remains another important theatrical-to-streaming experiment.
Disney moved the film exclusively onto Disney+ on September 2, accompanied by an official Mandalorian podcast and a new LEGO animated special.
Its theatrical debut generated approximately $165 million worldwide over Memorial Day weekend, including $102 million in the U.S. and Canada. Reuters noted that it was the smallest opening of Disney’s Star Wars era, though the movie carried a comparatively restrained $165 million production budget.
Its streaming window therefore has a special significance.
The Mandalorian was born on Disney+. Some fans who did not feel compelled to follow Din Djarin and Grogu into theaters may have simply been waiting for them to return home.
OTT takeaway: Streaming-originated franchises may behave differently when studios try to turn them into theatrical properties.
Short Trend Takeaway
This week’s clearest lesson comes from Supergirl and In the Grey.
Both films struggled in theaters. Both are now No. 1 movies on their respective streaming services.
That does not erase their theatrical losses—but it demonstrates why box office is no longer a complete measurement of audience interest.
At the same time, Scary Movie, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary demonstrate the opposite strategy: use streaming to extend movies that already succeeded.
The modern movie business increasingly has two very different audiences:
The theatrical audience answers, “Will I pay specifically to see this?”
The streaming audience answers, “Now that it’s here, will I watch it?”
Those answers can be remarkably different.
Video Links to Watch
Peacock’s official movie page includes the trailer for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie along with the film itself. Watch The Super Mario Galaxy Movie official trailer on Peacock
Paramount+ has the official Scary Movie streaming page, including information on both the theatrical and extended versions. Watch Scary Movie on Paramount+
Disney+’s official announcement includes the The Mandalorian and Grogu trailer plus official trailers for the companion podcast and LEGO special. Watch official The Mandalorian and Grogu videos
Prime Video has the official Project Hail Mary movie page. Watch Project Hail Mary on Prime Video
